CBDC tare da Bankunan da ke da Ƙuntatawar Kari: Daidaito da Tasirin Bashi

Teburin Abubuwan Ciki

1. Gabatarwa

Kuɗin Digo na Babban Banki (CBDC) suna wakiltar wani ci gaba mai canzawa a cikin tsarin kuɗi, tare da ƙasashe sama da 130 a halin yanzu suna binciken aiwatar da su bisa ga Atlantic Council's CBDC Tracker. Wannan takarda tana magana ne game da babban abin damuwa na rushewar tsaka-tsakin banki bayan gabatar da CBDC, tana ƙalubalantar sanannen hikima game da tasirin maye gurbin ajiya.

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Ƙasashe da ke binciken aiwatar da CBDC

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Tasirin tattalin arziki na hakika a cikin yanayin daidaito

Faɗaɗar Bashi

Yuwuwar sakamako tare da ingantaccen tsarin kari

2. Tsarin Ka'idoji

2.1 Tsarin Samfura

Binciken ya yi amfani da tsarin ma'auni na gabaɗaya tare da manyan wakilai guda uku: gidaje, bankunan kasuwanci, da babban banki. Gidaje suna raba dukiya tsakanin CBDC ($D_{cb}$) da adibas na banki ($D_b$), tare da aikin amfani:

$U = \sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \beta^t u(c_t, l_t, m_t)$

inda $m_t$ ke wakiltar ma'auni na kuɗi na hakika da suka haɗa da CBDC da adibas na banki.

2.2 Ƙuntatawar Kari

Ba kamar wallafe-wallafen da suka gabata ba, wannan takarda ta gabatar da ƙuntatawar kari kan bashi na babban banki. Dole ne bankuna su riƙe kari $\phi$ don samun damar lamuni na babban banki $L_{cb}$, tare da ƙuntatawa:

$L_{cb} \leq \kappa \cdot \phi$

inda $\kappa$ ke wakiltar asarar kari da babban banki ke aiwatarwa.

3. Sakamakon Daidaito

3.1 Nazarin Samfurin Tsayayye

Takardar ta nuna cewa ko da tare da ƙuntatawar kari, babban banki zai iya cimma daidaito tsakanin tsarin biyan kuɗi ta hanyar amfani da ingantattun kuɗudin bashi. Babban sharadin daidaito shine:

$r_{loan} = r_{deposit} + \lambda(\phi)$

inda $\lambda(\phi)$ ke wakiltar farashin inuwar kari.

3.2 Tsawaitawar Tsari

A cikin samfurin tsari, gabatarwar CBDC ba ta haifar da rushewar tsaka-tsakin banki amma a zahiri tana iya haɓaka faɗaɗar bashi ga kamfanoni. Aikin wadata bashi yana haɓaka kamar haka:

$C_t = f(D_{b,t}, L_{cb,t}, \phi_t)$

4. Nazarin Ƙwaƙwalwar Ajiya

4.1 Sakamakon Gwaji

Binciken ya gudanar da simintin lamba wanda ke nuna cewa tare da mafi kyawun kuɗudin bashi na babban banki, gabatarwar CBDC tana da ƙaramin tasiri akan yawan bashi na banki. Manyan binciken sun haɗa da:

Adibas na banki ya ragu da kashi 2-5% kawai tare da gabatarwar CBDC
Bashin kamfani ya karu da kashi 3-7% saboda ingantaccen ingancin kari
Tasirin walwala ba shi da tsaka-tsaki a cikin duk yanayi

4.2 Zane-zane na Fasaha

Binciken ya haɗa da zane-zane na ma'auni waɗanda ke nuna alaƙa tsakanin buƙatar CBDC, kuɗudin bashi na banki, da buƙatun kari. Hoto na 1 yana nuna yadda kuɗudin bashi na babban banki ke shafar daidaito tsakanin tsarin biyan kuɗi, yayin da Hoto na 2 ya nuna hanyar daidaitawar tsari na bashi na banki bayan gabatarwar CBDC.

5. Aiwatarwa

5.1 Misalan Lamba

Ana iya aiwatar da samfurin ta amfani da wannan lambar Python pseudocode don lissafin ma'auni:

def calculate_equilibrium(parameters):
    # Initialize variables
    r_loan = parameters['r_loan_init']
    cbdc_demand = parameters['cbdc_demand']
    
    # Iterate to find equilibrium
    for iteration in range(max_iterations):
        # Calculate bank responses
        bank_deposits = calculate_deposit_supply(r_loan, cbdc_demand)
        bank_loans = calculate_loan_supply(bank_deposits, parameters['collateral'])
        
        # Update lending rate
        r_loan_new = update_lending_rate(bank_loans, parameters)
        
        # Check convergence
        if abs(r_loan_new - r_loan) < tolerance:
            break
        r_loan = r_loan_new
    
    return {
        'equilibrium_rate': r_loan,
        'bank_deposits': bank_deposits,
        'cbdc_holdings': cbdc_demand
    }

5.2 Cikakkun Bayanai na Fasaha

Tsarin lissafi ya tsawaita samfurin Brunnermeier da Niepelt (2019) ta hanyar haɗa ƙuntatawar kari. Matsalar inganta bankin ta zama:

$\max_{D_b,L} \pi = r_L L - r_D D_b - r_{cb} L_{cb} - C(\phi)$

a ƙarƙashin: $L_{cb} \leq \kappa \phi$ da $L \leq D_b + L_{cb}$

6. Aikace-aikace na Gaba

Binciken ya buɗe hanyoyi da yawa don aikin gaba:

Haɗa kai tare da fasahar distributed ledger don sarrafa kari
Tasirin CBDC na ketare iyaka ga tafkunan kari na duniya
Aikace-aikacen koyon inji don ingantaccen kari na tsari
Tsarin sasantawa na ainihi ta amfani da CBDC a matsayin kadarin sasantawa

Nazarin Kwararre: Gaskiyar CBDC Bayan Ƙwaƙwalwar Ajiya

Maganar Gaskiya

Wannan takarda ta kawo wani muhimmin bincike na gaskiya: abin da ake tsoron rushewar tsaka-tsakin banki daga CBDC galibi tatsuniya ce lokacin da aka kafa ingantattun tsare-tsaren kari. Marubutan sun jefar da sanannen hikimar cewa CBDC kai tsaye suna cinye adibas na banki, suna nuna maimakon haka cewa tare da ingantaccen aikin babban banki, za mu iya haɓaka faɗaɗar bashi a zahiri.

Sarkar Ma'ana

Hujja tana bin sarkar ma'ana mai kyau: Gabatarwar CBDC → yuwuwar fitowar adibas → bankuna suna buƙatar kuɗaɗen babban banki → buƙatun kari suna fara aiki → amma babban banki zai iya saita kuɗudin bashi don kiyaye daidaito → sakamako: babu tasirin tattalin arziki na hakika amma an canza tsarin kasuwancin banki. Wannan ya ginu kai tsaye akan aikin Brunnermeier da Niepelt amma ya ƙara muhimmin sashe na kari da ya ɓace daga samfuran farko.

Abubuwan Haske da Ra'ayi

Abubuwan Haske: Ƙirƙirar ƙuntatawar kari yana da mahimmanci sosai—yana nuna yadda bankunan tsakiya ke aiki a zahiri, sabanin samfuran marasa gogayya a cikin wallafe-wallafen farko. Tsawaitawar tsari da ke nuna yuwuwar faɗaɗar bashi yana da ma'ana kuma yana da kima.

Ra'ayi: Takardar tana ɗauka cewa bankunan tsakiya za su iya daidaita kuɗudin bashi daidai gwargwado, wanda yake da kyakkyawan fata idan aka yi la'akari da jinkirin aiki na duniya. Haka kuma ta guje wa tasirin rarrabawa—duk da yake sakamakon gama gari na iya zama tsaka-tsaki, wasu bankuna na musamman na iya fuskantar matsananciyar damuwa.

Gargaɗin Aiki

Ga masu tsara manufofi: Daina damuwa game da rushewar tsaka-tsaki kuma ku mai da hankali kan tsara tsare-tsaren kari waɗanda ke ƙarfafa bashi mai fa'ida. Ga bankuna: Barazana ba ta fitar da adibas ba ce amma tsarin kasuwancin da ya tsufa—ku daidaita ko ku mutu. Ga masu bincike: Sakamakon daidaito yana nuna cewa mun kasance muna yin tambayoyin da ba daidai ba; ainihin aikin yana cikin yadda CBDC ke sake fasalin ayyukan banki, ba ko sun maye gurbin adibas ba.

Idan aka kwatanta da matsayin Bank for International Settlements (BIS) mafi taka tsantsan game da haɗarin CBDC, wannan takarda tana ba da hangen nesa mai daɗi amma mai tsauri. Kamar yadda takardar CycleGAN ta kawo juyin juya hali na fassarar hoto ta nuna ana iya yin taswira yankuna ba tare da misalan biyu ba, wannan binciken ya nuna ana iya canza tsarin biyan kuɗi ba tare da rushewar tattalin arziki ba lokacin da muka fahimci daidaiton da ke ƙasa.

7. Nassoshi

Brunnermeier, M. K., & Niepelt, D. (2019). On the equivalence of private and public money. Journal of Monetary Economics, 106, 27-41.
Niepelt, D. (2022). Reserves for all? Central bank digital currency, deposits, and their (non)-equivalence. International Journal of Central Banking.
Khiaonarong, T., & Humphrey, D. (2022). Cash use across countries and the demand for central bank digital currency. Journal of Payments Strategy & Systems.
Bank for International Settlements. (2023). Annual Economic Report: CBDC and the future of monetary system.
Atlantic Council. (2024). CBDC Tracker: Global Central Bank Digital Currency Development.