Bincike Kan Isasshen Kudaden Waje Na Serbia Da Abubuwan Da Suka Haifar Da Tattarawar Su

1. Gabatarwa & Mahallin Bincike

A zamanin duniya baki daya, kasashe suna fuskantar karuwar rauni ga tasirin waje. Wannan takarda tana binciken isasshen kudaden waje a Jamhuriyar Serbia (RS) da kuma manyan abubuwan tattalin arziki da ke haifar da tattarawar su daga Q1 2002 zuwa Q3 2020. Binciken ya samo asali ne daga yanayin da aka lura a tsakanin Kasashen Kasuwa Masu Tasowa (EMEs) na gina manyan tanadin kudade a matsayin garkuwa daga sauyin kudaden shiga da rikicin kudi, dabarar da aka tabbatar da ita a lokacin rikicin kudi na duniya na 2008-2009.

2. Hanyoyin Bincike & Bayanai

Binciken ya yi amfani da hanyar binciken lokaci-lokaci (time-series) na tattalin arziki don nazarin dangantakar dogon lokaci tsakanin kudaden waje na Serbia da zaɓaɓɓun masu canjin tattalin arziki.

2.1 Tsarin Tsarin Binciken Tattalin Arziki (Econometric Model)

Babban binciken ya dogara ne akan tsarin haɗin kai (cointegration framework), wanda ya dace don gano ingantattun dangantakar dogon lokaci tsakanin jerin lokutan tattalin arziki marasa tsayawa (non-stationary). Tsarin ya nuna cewa kudaden waje (FER) aiki ne na girman tattalin arziki, matsin lamba na musayar kuɗi, da zurfin harkar kuɗi.

2.2 Tushen Bayanai Da Masu Canji (Variables)

Binciken ya yi amfani da bayanan kwata-kwata. Manyan masu canji sune:

• Kudaden Waje (FER): Matsakaicin mai dogaro, kamar yadda Babban Bankin Serbia (NBS) ya ruwaito.
• Jimlar Kayan Cikin Gida (GDP): Wakilin girman tattalin arziki da ƙarfin shigo da kayayyaki.
• Ingantacciyar Ƙimar Musanya Ta Haƙiƙa (REER): Ma'auni wanda ke auna gasar dinar. Ƙaruwa (ƙima) na iya nuna matsin lamba akan tanadin kudade.
• Jimlar Kuɗi (M2/GDP): Ma'auni wanda ke wakiltar zurfin harkar kuɗi da yuwuwar basussukan waje na ɗan gajeren lokaci.

3. Sakamakon Bincike & Nazari

3.1 Gwajin Unit Root Da Cointegration

Gwaje-gwajen Unit Root (misali, Augmented Dickey-Fuller) sun tabbatar da cewa duk jerin lokutan sun kasance marasa tsayawa (non-stationary) a matakan farko amma suna tsayawa a bambance-bambancen farko, watau an haɗa su a mataki ɗaya, I(1). Gwaje-gwajen haɗin kai (cointegration) na gaba (misali, hanyar Johansen) sun bayyana kasancewar lissafin haɗin kai guda ɗaya, yana nuna ingantacciyar dangantakar dogon lokaci tsakanin masu canjin.

3.2 Dangantakar Ma'auni Na Dogon Lokaci

Lissafin haɗin kai da aka ƙiyasta ya nuna tasirin gabaɗaya mai mahimmanci akan tattarawar tanadi a Serbia:

1. GDP (Ayyukan Tattalin Arziki): Babban abin motsa gaba mai inganci. Tattalin arziki mafi girma yana buƙata kuma yana ba da damar samun tanadi mafi girma don dalilai na ciniki da na riga-kafi.
2. REER (Matsin Lamba Na Musayar Kuɗi): Ƙimar dinar (REER tana tashi) tana da alaƙa da tattarawar tanadi, mai yiwuwa yana nuna shisshigin babban banki don hana ƙima mai yawa.
3. M2/GDP (Zurfin Harkar Kuɗi): Haɓakar kuɗi mai faɗi idan aka kwatanta da GDP yana tasiri sosai ga tanadi, yana daidaitawa da ƙa'idar Guidotti-Greenspan cewa tanadi ya kamata ya rufe basussukan waje na ɗan gajeren lokaci.

Babban Bincike: Kudaden waje na Serbia sun ci gaba da wuce matakan da ka'idojin da aka saba amfani da su suka nuna (misali, watanni 3 na shigo da kayayyaki). Binciken ya danganta wannan ga wasu abubuwa na musamman kamar rabon riba da ake biyan masu zuba jari na ƙasashen waje da wasu sassan saka hannun jari, waɗanda galibi ba a haɗa su cikin ƙima na yau da kullun ba.

4. Muhimman Binciken & Tasirin Manufofi

• Serbia tana riƙe da tanadi sama da ma'aunin isasshi na al'ada, yana ba da kariya mai ƙarfi daga tasirin waje.
• Tattarawar tanadi tana da alaƙa ta tsari da haɓakar GDP, manufofin sarrafa musayar kuɗi, da zurfin harkar kuɗi na cikin gida.
• Ƙimar manufofi dole ne ta haɗa da "fitar da kuɗi marasa ganuwa" kamar rabon masu zuba jari don samun cikakkiyar hoto na isasshen tanadi.
• Sarrafa tanadi mai ƙarfi na NBS ya bayyana a matsayin amsa mai ma'ana ga raunin tattalin arziki mai tasowa da buɗaɗɗen kasuwa.

5. Cikakkiyar Fahimta & Ra'ayin Mai Bincike

Cikakkiyar Fahimta: Serbia ba kawai tana tattara daloli ba; tana gudanar da ingantaccen tsarin inshora wanda ya dogara da bayanai. Takardar ta bayyana cewa dabarar tanadi na Babban Bankin Serbia (NBS) wani yunƙuri ne na riga-kafi don hana raunin kuɗi, wanda ya wuce ƙa'idodin littattafai zuwa wani tsari da ya dogara da haɗin ƙasa ta musamman cikin kwararar jarin duniya. Wannan ba tattarawa mara aiki ba ce; sarrafa haɗari ne mai ƙarfi.

Tsarin Ma'ana: Hujja tana da gamsarwa. Ta fara da mahallin duniya (raunin EME), ta kafa gaskiyar binciken Serbia (tanadi > ma'auni na yau da kullun), sannan ta yi amfani da ingantaccen binciken tattalin arziki (cointegration) don gano abubuwan da ke motsa su: girman tattalin arziki (GDP), farashin kwanciyar hankali na musayar kuɗi (REER), da inuwar yuwuwar gudun jari (M2/GDP). Ma'anar ta ƙare a cikin mahimmin batu, wanda sau da yawa ake rasa shi: ma'auni na yau da kullun sun kasa saboda sun yi watsi da basussuka kamar rabon masu zuba jari. Wannan yana daidaitawa da ƙarin zargi a cikin wallafe-wallafen kuɗe na duniya, kamar aikin Jeanne da Rancière (2011) kan dalilai na riga-kafi, wanda ke jayayya cewa mafi kyawun tanadi ya dogara da haɗarin da farashin fitarwa na rikici, ba kawai rufe shigo da kayayyaki ba.

Ƙarfi & Kurakurai: Ƙarfinsa yana cikin mayar da hankali kan aikace-aikace, manufofi masu dacewa da ingantacciyar hanyar bincike. Ya gano daidai "ɓoyayyun" abubuwan da ke cikin isasshen tanadi. Duk da haka, tsarin yana da ɗan ƙaramin ƙima. Bai ƙirƙira aikin amsa na NBS a sarari ba ko kuma ya haɗa da masu canji masu sa ido zuwa gaba kamar sha'awar haɗarin duniya (misali, ma'aunin VIX), wanda shine babban abin motsa kwararar jari zuwa EMEs, kamar yadda aikin Bruno da Shin (2015) ya nuna akan kwararar banki na duniya. Wannan yana iyakance ikon tsinkayarsa don hanyoyin tattarawa na gaba.

Fahimta Mai Aiki: Ga masu tsara manufofi a cikin tattalin arziki makamantan: 1) Yi amfani da ma'auni mai ƙarfi: Ku watsar da ƙa'idar shigo da kayayyaki na watanni 3 maras motsi. Ƙirƙiri dashboard na musamman ga ƙasa wanda ya haɗa da alamun rauni na kuɗi. 2) Gwada matsin lamba don fitar da kuɗi ɓoyayye: Haɗa bayanai kan mayar da riba da basussukan saka hannun jari cikin ƙimar isasshen tanadi. 3) Bayyana dabarar: Bayyana dalilin riƙe "ɗin tanadi mai yawa" a fili ga jama'a don sarrafa tsammanin da kuma ba da hujjar farashin dama. Hanyar NBS, kamar yadda aka bincika, tana ba da ingantaccen tsari ga sauran manyan bankunan EMEs waɗanda ke tafiya cikin matsalar buɗaɗɗen asusun jari, sarrafa ƙimar musaya, da 'yancin kai na kuɗi.

6. Tsarin Fasaha & Tsarin Lissafi

Za a iya wakilta babban tsarin binciken tattalin arziki a matsayin dangantakar haɗin kai ta dogon lokaci:

$\ln(FER_t) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \ln(GDP_t) + \beta_2 REER_t + \beta_3 (M2/GDP)_t + \epsilon_t$

Inda:
- $FER_t$ shine matakin tanadin kudaden waje a lokacin $t$.
- $GDP_t$ shine Jimlar Kayan Cikin Gida.
- $REER_t$ shine ma'aunin Ingantacciyar Ƙimar Musanya Ta Haƙiƙa.
- $(M2/GDP)_t$ shine ma'auni na kuɗi mai faɗi zuwa GDP.
- $\epsilon_t$ shine kalmar kuskure mai tsayawa, wanda ke wakiltar karkata daga ma'aunin dogon lokaci.

Hanyar gwaji ta haɗa da:
1. Gwajin Unit Root: $\Delta y_t = \alpha + \rho y_{t-1} + \sum_{i=1}^{p} \gamma_i \Delta y_{t-i} + u_t$ (Gwaji $H_0: \rho=0$).
2. Gwajin Haɗin Kai (Johansen): $\Delta Y_t = \Pi Y_{t-1} + \sum_{i=1}^{k-1} \Gamma_i \Delta Y_{t-i} + \varepsilon_t$, inda $\Pi$ ya ƙunshi bayanai game da dangantakar dogon lokaci.
3. Ƙididdigewa 0$, $\hat{\beta_2} > 0$, da $\hat{\beta_3} > 0$.

7. Tsarin Nazari: Misali Mai Amfani

Yanayi: Wani mai bincike a bankin ci gaban yanki yana son tantance isasshen tanadi na "Ƙasa X," EME mai kama da Serbia.

Aiwatar da Tsarin (Misali Ba Code ba):

1. Tattara Bayanai: Tattara jerin lokutan kwata-kwata na Ƙasa X (2010-2023): Tanadin Kudaden Waje, GDP a cikin USD, Ma'aunin REER, M2, da Basussukan Waje na ɗan Gajeren Lokaci.
2. Lissafin Ma'auni Na Al'ada: Lissafa ma'auni na al'ada: Watanni na Rufe Shigo da Kayayyaki, Tanadi zuwa Basussuka na ɗan Gajeren Lokaci (Ma'aunin Guidotti), Tanadi zuwa M2 (Ƙa'idar Greenspan).
3. Nazarin Giba: Kwatanta ma'auni na Ƙasa X da ƙofofin shiga (misali, 100% don ma'aunin Guidotti) da kuma da rukunin takwarorinsu (misali, EMEs na Balkan).
4. Ƙirƙirar Tsarin Binciken Tattalin Arziki (An samo wahayi daga wannan takarda):
   • Ƙayyadaddun tsarin dogon lokaci: $Tanadi = f(GDP, REER, Zurfin Harkar Kuɗi, Basussukan Waje)$.
   • Yi gwaje-gwajen Unit Root da Cointegration.
   • Ƙididdige dangantakar ma'auni. Shin zurfin harkar kuɗi ($M2/GDP$) ya nuna alaƙa mai ƙarfi mai inganci, yana nuna rigakafin rauni?
5. Haɗa "Abubuwan ɓoyayye": Gyara binciken ta hanyar ƙara bayanai akan:
   • Ribobi na shekara-shekara da mayar da riba ta masu zuba jari kai tsaye na ƙasashen waje.
   • Rijiyoyin lamuni na gwamnatin cikin gida da ba mazauna ba ke riƙe su.
6. Haɗawa: Ka ƙare ba kawai idan tanadi "ya isa" ba, amma *dalilin* da ya sa suke a matakin da suke yanzu (haɓaka ne, manufofi ne, ko rauni ne) da kuma wane takamaiman haɗari mai ɓoye za su iya rufe su ko a'a.

8. Ayyukan Gaba & Hanyoyin Bincike

• Haɓaka Koyon Injina (Machine Learning): Tsare-tsare na gaba na iya haɗa dabarun koyon injina (kamar cibiyoyin sadarwa na LSTM da ake amfani da su wajen hasashen jerin lokutan kuɗi) tare da binciken tattalin arziki na al'ada don inganta hasashen buƙatar tanadi a ƙarƙashin yanayi daban-daban na tasiri, tare da ɗaukar abubuwan da ba su da layi.
• Bayanai Mai Yawan Maimaitawa (High-Frequency): Haɗa bayanan kwararar jari na mako-mako ko wata-wata na iya inganta amsawar tsarin ga tsayawa kwatsam ko haɓaka.
• Nazarin Cibiyar Sadarwa (Network Analysis): Bincike zai iya nazarin matsayin Serbia a cikin hanyoyin sadarwar kuɗe na duniya don fahimtar haɗarin yaɗuwa, kama da binciken kan bayyanar banki na ketare.
• Haɗa Haɗarin Yanayi: Yayin da kuɗin yanayi ke girma, tsare-tsaren isasshen tanadi na gaba na iya buƙatar yin la'akari da yuwuwar basussuka daga bala'o'in da suka shafi yanayi ko haɗarin canji, wani yanki na gaba a cikin babban banki.
• Tasirin CBDC: Yuwuwar gabatar da Kuɗin Lantarki na Babban Banki (CBDC) na iya canza biyan kuɗe na ketare da sarrafa tanadi. Ana buƙatar bincike kan yadda CBDCs za su iya shafar buƙatar da kuma abun da ke cikin tanadin kudaden waje.

9. Nassoshi

1. Frenkel, J. A., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework. The Economic Journal, 91(362), 507–514.
2. Jeanne, O., & Rancière, R. (2011). The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications. The Economic Journal, 121(555), 905–930.
3. Bruno, V., & Shin, H. S. (2015). Cross-border banking and global liquidity. The Review of Economic Studies, 82(2), 535–564.
4. Asusun Ba da Lamuni Na Duniya (IMF). (2015). Tantance Isasshen Tanadi – Shawarwari Na Musamman. Takardar Manufofin IMF.
5. Bošnjak, M., Bilas, V., & Kordić, G. (2020). Determinants of Foreign Exchange Reserves: The Case of Emerging European Countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 33(1), 1-17.
6. Babban Bankin Serbia (NBS). (2020). Rahoton Kwanciyar Hankali Na Kuɗi Na Shekara.
7. Davis, J. S., Cowley, J., & Morris, A. (2018). The Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves on Emerging Market Spreads. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 213-228.